9 - looking forward to 2007

A discussion of the outlook for 2007 and TELUSí 2007 financial and operational targets, including key assumptions and financing plans


The following discussion is qualified in its entirety by the Forward-looking statements at the beginning of Management's discussion and analysis, and Section 10: Risks and risk management.

9.1 General outlook

In 2006, the telecommunications market experienced trends similar to those in recent years. The wireless sector continued to face competitive pressures, while generating profitable growth. The wireline sector faced increased competitive pressures and lower profitability. Canadian telecommunications operators maintained their focus on core operations and cash flow generation, and continued to pursue enhanced efficiencies and divestiture of non-core assets.

The Canadian telecom industry, including wireline and wireless, generated estimated revenues of approximately $38 billion in 2006, with Bell Canada and its affiliated telecommunications companies representing about 45% of the total. As the second largest telecommunications provider in Canada, TELUS generated almost $8.7 billion of revenue in 2006, or approximately 23% of the total.

Revenue growth in the Canadian telecom market in 2006 was about 6%, an improvement on the 3.5 to 4.5% growth experienced over the past few years, and better than overall GDP growth. Wireless and enhanced data continued to be the growth engine for the sector with revenues growing approximately 17% over 2005. Offsetting wireless growth was continued general industry weakness in wireline voice with declining long distance and legacy data revenues, although this decline was partially offset by growth in enhanced data services. TELUS' focus on wireless, data and IP resulted in TELUS surpassing the industry average in 2006 with 6.6% consolidated revenue growth. A similar growth rate for TELUS is expected in 2007.

The telecom landscape is expected to remain competitive. On the wireline front, traditional services remain under pressure with industry revenues declining for the fifth consecutive year. Local and long distance revenues are expected to continue to be impacted by consumer migration from wireline to wireless and VoIP services.

With basic cable-TV subscriber additions flat and high-speed Internet subscriber growth slowing, cable-TV companies have increased certain pricing, are launching higher-speed Internet services and are rolling out Internet telephony and digital cable-TV services to fuel growth. By the end of 2006, Shaw Communications had captured approximately 200,000 residential telephone subscribers in B.C. and Alberta, and announced plans to roll out their service throughout both provinces in 2007. Similarly, Rogers Communications and Videotron have launched Internet telephony service in their service areas in Central Canada.

The wireless market in Canada is predicted to continue to be competitive and to generate continued growth as penetration rates (wireless subscribers divided by population) increase.

Overall, the telecom industry appears to be heading towards a less regulated environment with several decisions from the federal government and CRTC removing regulatory constraints. The federal government has stated its intent to move the telecommunications industry from its current regulated environment towards a more open environment that is based on a reliance on market forces to the maximum extent feasible.

In April, the CRTC established a framework for forbearance from the regulation of local services. Subsequently, the federal government proposed changes to the regulatory environment that, if implemented, will significantly alter the terms of the CRTC's local forbearance framework. Similarly, in November, the federal Minister of Industry overruled the CRTC's previous decision to regulate telecom VoIP offerings by deregulating access-independent VoIP providers.

In 2006, companies with greater wireless exposure generally benefited from higher revenue and cash flow growth, resulting in share price appreciation. Capital markets and investors continue to look for growth in wireless and data to generate ongoing operating earnings and cash flow growth, while closely monitoring how operators protect their legacy revenues and margins. Toward the end of 2006, both telecom and cable-TV companies announced plans to return capital to shareholders through share buybacks and increased dividends.

With 44% of consolidated revenue being wireless, as well as exposure to other growth services such as high-speed Internet, TELUS TV and IP and data services for enterprise clients, TELUS is well positioned to potentially continue its strong performance.

Wireless

The wireless industry continues to experience robust growth with year-over-year industry revenue and EBITDA growth of approximately 16% and 28%, respectively.

The growth opportunity remains given that Canada's penetration rate trails those of other developed countries due to structural and timing differences. The penetration rates in many Western European countries passed 100% in 2006, whereas Asian countries such as Korea are approaching 80% penetration. These penetration rates are not exactly comparable or achievable in Canada or the U.S. due to higher quality, lower cost, fixed-rate local service here, multiple subscriptions being possible on one GSM handset in Europe and differences in postpaid and prepaid mix. Closer to home, the U.S. wireless industry is more comparable to Canada, with a penetration rate of approximately 76%, but has benefited from a start two years earlier than in Canada. In contrast, when looking at the major reporting Canadian operators, Canada is continuing to grow strongly with approximately 1.7 million new subscribers in 2006, or a 4.6 point increase in penetration to more than 56%. A similar rate of growth in 2007 is generally expected.

Another growth opportunity in the wireless industry is in data services such as text messaging, mobile computing, gaming, ringtones, music, mobile TV and PDAs. As adoption and usage rates accelerate, these services are driving higher data ARPU. To capture this opportunity, Canadian wireless providers are well advanced in building next generation higher-speed wireless networks. Data ARPU increases are offsetting the decline in voice revenues caused by price competition and flat minutes of use.

Data ARPU as a percentage of total ARPU varies throughout the world, with Asia and Europe at approximately 20% and 15%, respectively. Data in the U.S. is approximately 15% of total revenue, in Canada is about 10%, and is growing strongly in both countries.

Competition within the wireless market is anticipated to remain intense due to a number of factors. While TELUS, Rogers and Bell account for the majority of market share, the mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) market is expected to continue to expand in 2007. Virgin Mobile grew its presence in 2006, and was joined by Videotron, partnering with Rogers to offer an MVNO wireless phone service. Retailer brands such as President's Choice and 7-Eleven stores also launched MVNO offerings. In 2006, TELUS announced the 2007 launch of premium, differentiated services under the Amp'd Mobile brand. In the price-sensitive prepaid market, Bell and Rogers are promoting their respective Solo and Fido discount brand offerings to compete against the MVNOs and TELUS.

As mandated by the CRTC, an industry-wide implementation of a wireless number portability capability for end users is expected to come into effect in March 2007. The removal of this key switching barrier may increase overall industry churn rates through the remainder of 2007. (See Section 10.3 Regulatory — Implementation of wireless number portability.)

There has been some speculation that Industry Canada may encourage additional competition through a spectrum auction, expected in 2008, by capping the amount of spectrum any one provider can purchase or setting spectrum aside for a new entrant. While a new entrant provider would face significant hurdles such as high penetration rates and large capital commitments for network investment and startup costs, the introduction of a new competitor could likely increase competitive intensity. (See Section 10.1 Competition — Future availability of wireless spectrum.)

TELUS is well positioned in the Canadian wireless market where it leads the major industry providers with the lowest churn and highest ARPU. While TELUS does not have any MVNO relationships or discount brands, its exclusive relationship with Amp'd Mobile will target young adults and is expected to bring highly differentiated and premium data-focused entertainment, information and messaging services to Canadians in the second quarter of 2007.

Wireline

In contrast to wireless, expectations for the mature wireline segment are more modest. Residential access lines continue to be impacted by migrations to wireless services, reduction in the number of second lines, and substitution to VoIP services, particularly those offered by cable-TV providers. The long distance market is expected to decline further, as VoIP providers continue to aggressively price and promote voice packages to customers, and customers use other technologies such as e-mail.

While non-facilities-based VoIP service providers have had modest success with local telephony, the biggest challenge to incumbent telecom players is coming from Canadian cable-TV companies that operate their own facilities and distribution channels. It is estimated that the four cable-TV companies had more than 1.1 million local cable telephony subscribers in 2006, up almost 800,000 from 2005.

The consumer market is expected to continue to be highly competitive as advances in technology blur the boundaries between the telecom, video, broadcast and entertainment distribution sectors. With its Future Friendly Home strategy, TELUS is positioned to grow wallet share with consumers, while enhancing retention and loyalty through its multiple service offerings. Following its launch of TELUS TV in 2005, TELUS has continued to roll out this service in certain markets in British Columbia and Alberta. Combined with its wireline local and long distance, wireless, and high-speed Internet services, TELUS' goal is to use a quadruple play product offering to achieve competitive differentiation compared to competitors by offering a premium, integrated set of services that allows customers more freedom, flexibility and choice.

TELUS' ability to compete effectively in wireline is expected to be enhanced by the changing regulatory environment in Canada. For example, the federal government recently proposed that regulation of local phone services no longer be required in markets where consumers have the choice of the ILEC and two other facilities-based providers (including a competitive wireless provider). Similarly, forbearance may be applied where businesses have a choice between the ILEC and one other facilities-based provider. As this would apply to markets where an ILEC, an independent wireless provider and another facilities-based provider such as a cable-TV company are present, TELUS would expect to be in a position to achieve deregulation in most of its incumbent urban local exchanges in 2007, if the proposal is enacted in early 2007. In addition, no further price cap regulation is expected in the local consumer market when the current price cap regime ends in June 2007.

Certain elements of the business market, such as IP and data, continue to show signs of strength. However, the frontier between telecom and IT remains competitive, with IT service providers moving down the value chain into the communications space, and telcos looking to push beyond their traditional niche. Network equipment manufacturers are also moving up the value chain into the managed network space.

Legacy voice and data services are expected to continue to decline due to the accelerated adoption of IP services as a result of businesses and large enterprises upgrading their legacy networks and equipment. TELUS expects to have continued success by offering enterprise clients integrated, managed solutions focused on key verticals such as the energy sector, financial services, the public sector and the healthcare industry.

In order to grow their businesses, telcos continue to move outside of their traditional ILEC areas into non-ILEC territories by focusing on managed solutions and high priority verticals. They are expected to continue developing single IP-based platforms to provide combined IP voice, data and video solutions, thereby creating cost efficiencies to, at least in part, compensate for future margin pressures from the migration from legacy to IP-based services.

TELUS' strategic focus on delivering national business services in data and IP, coupled with its exposure to the wireless market, solidly position the Company to continue its growth in 2007 and beyond.

9.2 Financial and operating targets for 2007

The following discussion is qualified in its entirety by the Forward-looking statements at the beginning of Management's discussion and analysis, as well as Section 10: Risks and risk management. TELUS' 2007 targets were originally announced on December 14, 2006.

The Company has received regulatory approval to amend its share option plans to provide for cash settlement, and in January 2007, determined that the feature would be available for substantially all currently vested options and those vesting in 2007. Cash settlement mitigates dilution from issuing shares from treasury, and allows cash payments for the difference in value between the market price and the exercise price of shares to be deductible for tax purposes when options are exercised, which is expected to result in significant future tax savings. This change results in an increased non-cash option expense (an operating expense) for accounting purposes, which is estimated at $150 to $200 million ($120 to $150 million in wireline and $30 to $50 million in wireless). The expense is expected to be substantially recorded in the first quarter of 2007. TELUS' 2007 stated targets for segmented EBITDA, consolidated EBITDA and EPS exclude the non-cash accounting expense expected to be recorded in regards to implementing the cash settlement for options.

Wireline revenue is expected to increase 1 to 2% in 2007, driven largely by data. Wireline EBITDA, prior to the change to 2007 expenses for cash settlement of options, is expected to be down 1 to 3% due to continued competitive pressures, initial expenses related to launch of growth-oriented products and services, and lower profitability margins.

Wireless revenue is expected to increase 12 to 13% in 2007 due to continued strong growth in wireless subscribers and increased wireless data adoption and usage. Wireless EBITDA, prior to the change to 2007 expenses for cash settlement of options, is expected to increase 11 to 14% in the year.

The expected earnings per share in 2007 reflects overall higher operating profitability, lower financing costs as a consequence of reduced debt levels and lower interest rates on debt refinancing, and an expected decrease in total outstanding shares. The 2007 EPS growth is expected to be affected by increased depreciation expense and $0.30 to $0.40 for an after-tax impact from the change to cash settlement of options. TELUS' comparative EPS for 2006 included approximately $0.48 of positive impacts from the settlement of tax matters and changes to tax legislation. Because of these factors, EPS for 2007, excluding the change to cash settlement of options, is expected to be flat to 6% higher than reported for 2006.

Earnings per share, cash balances, net debt and common equity may be affected by the potential purchases of up to 24 million TELUS shares over a 12-month period under the normal course issuer bid that commenced December 20, 2006.


In order to view elements of this site, you need to activate JavaScript and have Adobe Flash Player installed on your computer.

You can download the latest Flash Player for free from Adobe's website.


Assumptions for 2007 targets include:

  • Economic growth consistent with recent provincial and national estimates by the Conference Board of Canada, including the revised 2007 real GDP growth of 2.7% in Canada;
  • Increased wireline competition in both business and consumer markets, particularly from cable-TV and VoIP companies;
  • Forbearance for local retail wireline services in major urban markets by the second half of 2007;
  • No further price cap mandated consumer price reductions;
  • A wireless industry market penetration gain of 4.5 to five percentage points;
  • Approximately $50 million of restructuring and workforce reduction expenses ($67.8 million in 2006);
  • A statutory tax rate of approximately 33 to 34%;
  • A discount rate of 5.0% and an expected long-term average return of 7.25% for pension accounting, unchanged from 2006; and
  • Average shares outstanding of 330 to 335 million shares for the full year.

As described in Section 5 Consolidated results from operations — Income taxes, TELUS currently expects minimal cash tax payments in 2007.

TELUS continues to have long-term policy guidelines including Net debt to EBITDA of 1.5 to 2.0 times, Net debt to total capitalization of 45 to 50% and a dividend payout ratio guideline of 45 to 55% of sustainable net earnings. The 2007 targets are in compliance with these policy guidelines.

9.3 Financing plan for 2007

TELUS expects to generate free cash flow in 2007, which would be available to, among other things, repay debt, repurchase shares and pay dividends to shareholders. The Company expects to use the proceeds from securitized receivables and bank facilities, as needed, to supplement its free cash flow and to meet any other cash requirements.

TELUS also expects to maintain its current position of fully hedging its foreign exchange exposure for indebtedness and generally expects to maintain a minimum of $1 billion in unutilized liquidity. At the end of 2006, almost all of TELUS' total debt was on a fixed-rate basis, and the weighted average term to maturity was approximately 4.5 years.

In respect of debt maturities, TELUS has U.S. $1,165.5 million of principal maturing on June 1, 2007. TELUS has taken several steps towards refinancing a significant amount of these Notes. In May 2006, TELUS successfully issued $300 million of 5.00% Notes, Series CB, with a seven-year maturity. The net proceeds of the offering were used to pay for the early termination of cross currency swap agreements related to TELUS' 7.5% U.S. dollar Notes that mature in June 2007. In addition, the Company has entered into forward starting interest rate swap agreements that have the effect of fixing the underlying interest rate on up to $500 million of future debt issuance.

Debt maturities as at December 31, 2006




In order to view elements of this site, you need to activate JavaScript and have Adobe Flash Player installed on your computer.

You can download the latest Flash Player for free from Adobe's website.


If circumstances warrant, TELUS may consider refinancing all or a portion of these Notes due June 1, 2007 in advance of the regularly scheduled maturity date. Potential sources for the refinancing of these Notes may include retained cash from operations as well as public long-term debt and short-term debt such as commercial paper. Commercial paper issuance in Canada generally requires an R-1 (low) rating from Dominion Bond Rating Service and is required to be supported by committed bank credit facilities. TELUS may increase its bank credit facilities to support an issuance of commercial paper. TELUS also has access to a shelf prospectus pursuant to which it can issue a further $2.7 billion of debt and equity. TELUS believes that its investment grade credit ratings provide reasonable access to capital markets to facilitate future debt issuance. For the related risk discussion, see Section 10.6 Financing and debt requirements.